Lebanese Shi'ites Show Shift in Views on Hezbollah Armament

Political dynamics in Lebanon are evolving as data suggests a shift in how the country's Shi'ite community views the armed capabilities of Hezbollah. A survey released in mid-October indicates that a majority of respondents now support handing the group's weapons over to the Lebanese state, marking a notable change from previous sentiments within the community that has long been the core of Hezbollah's support.

The poll was conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon and involved 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. The results showed that 66.4% of participants favored transferring control of Hezbollah's arsenal to the state, while 29.6% preferred that the group retain its weapons. This finding contrasts with the group's long-standing argument that its military strength is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel. The data emerged through reports by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.

Kataeb.org, the online platform for the Christian Kataeb Party which opposes Hezbollah, provided additional context on the findings. The site reported that 71.1% of those surveyed believed that decisions regarding war and peace should be made solely by the Lebanese state. Only a small minority, 5.9%, felt that Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the nation's future. This suggests a growing preference for centralized state authority over factional military influence.

Trust in the national military appears to be rising among the Shi'ite population. Approximately 78.5% of respondents indicated that they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. Furthermore, 51.1% identified the army as the institution best suited to guarantee long-term security. In comparison, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. These figures challenge the group's traditional claim to be the primary protector of Shi'ite security interests.

However, the overall sentiment remains complex. About 67.4% of respondents stated that Hezbollah had either failed to meet its goals in the recent war with Israel or had only partially achieved them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the aftermath of the conflict. Despite these criticisms, a majority of 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% expressing a great deal of trust.

Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's strength is sustained by the support networks and social status it provides to the sect. He observed that this influence persists as long as no other entity steps in to fill the void left by the group. The situation highlights a delicate balance where dissatisfaction exists but has not yet fully eroded the foundational support base.

These current findings differ sharply from earlier data. In a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That study found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel in that earlier poll. The significant gap in results has raised questions about whether differences in wording or agenda influenced the outcomes of the two surveys.

Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that Hezbollah's influence is deeply rooted in its social and economic networks, its political power, and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites in Lebanon. They also pointed to intimidation as a factor that discourages dissent within the community. The researchers suggested that weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army along with financial support from the West and the Gulf. This support would enable the state to replace the services that Hezbollah currently provides.

Signs of local wariness are emerging in daily life. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed the opening of a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah. Their concern was that the presence of the branch might make the building a target in an Israeli strike, a risk that has materialized in the past. Hezbollah has announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for families elsewhere.

Hezbollah has faced significant challenges, including major military losses and the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war began in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages across southern Lebanon. Whether current discontent translates into political change will likely depend on the ability of the Lebanese state to provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to its citizens.