Bills favored by three points as Ravens return Jackson for high-scoring Week 8 matchup

The Buffalo Bills hold a three-point advantage over the Baltimore Ravens in betting lines for their Sunday meeting at New Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The over/under for total points is set at 54.5, a figure that reflects Buffalo's dominant offensive output and the return of Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Jackson missed the previous three games, a period during which the Ravens' offense scored just 13 and 10 points in losses to the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. His return restores a unit that previously produced 41 and 34 points in two separate contests. Those two games, which concluded with 65 and 64 total points respectively, provide a baseline for the expected scoring output.

Buffalo enters the game following a bye week and currently leads the NFL in scoring with an average of 32.8 points per game. However, the Bills also allow 28.5 points per game, ranking third-highest in the league for points allowed. This defensive vulnerability contributes to an average of over 60 total points per game across their schedule.

SportsLine's predictive model, which has recorded a 58-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024, ran 10,000 simulations for this matchup. The model projects a combined total of 59 points. It identifies the Over as the value play, noting that the line has hit in all but one of Buffalo's games this season. The model indicates that the Over hits 56% of the time in this specific simulation context.

The game is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. It will be broadcast on CBS and Paramount+. Bettors can access the specific side of the spread that the model favors through SportsLine, where the data indicates one side hits over 50% of the time.

The Ravens' recent struggles in the division are set against their historical performance with Jackson at the helm. The Bills' consistent high scoring contrasts with their porous defense, creating a statistical profile that favors high totals. The market position of Buffalo as the favorite accounts for Baltimore's offensive volatility in Jackson's absence.