Knesset Math: Eisenkot Targets 58 Seats

Fifty-eight. That is the number of Knesset seats Gadi Eisenkot believes is sufficient to form the next Israeli government, a figure that has fractured the opposition bloc’s strategy. Eisenkot, who seeks to lead the anti-Netanyahu camp, argues that his parties can govern on a minority base if they secure either 58 or 59 seats. This approach would allow a cabinet to be sworn in after passing a confidence vote without the permanent backing of 61 members of Knesset, relying on the legal distinction that abstentions do not count as votes against.

The proposal clashes directly with the demands of Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, two key figures in the change-seeking camp. Liberman categorically rejects any minority government, even a transitional one. He insists on a Zionist majority from the outset and states that another election is preferable to a government that does not meet his conditions. Bennett, who leads the Beyachad list with Yair Lapid, shares this stance, refusing to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties to sustain a government.

Eisenkot’s plan hinges on the current polling data, which shows the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition but short of the 61 seats required for a traditional majority. While the right-wing bloc is also far from a majority in many surveys, the electoral threshold and small vote shifts could determine the outcome. Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from the Ra'am party, although no agreed formula exists for such cooperation. Democrats chairman Yair Golan has similarly left open the possibility of cooperating with Ra'am, adding another variable to the coalition math.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman this week ended without resolving their disagreement, resulting only in a joint call to increase voter turnout. Leadership rivalry complicates the effort, with Eisenkot aiming to head the largest party and Bennett positioning himself as a natural candidate due to his prior experience as prime minister. Liberman has suggested bringing Likud MKs into a government without Netanyahu, claiming some would be willing, though he has named none and no public talks are under way.

Independent of the coalition struggle, the opposition is nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any government deal is finalized. Control of the speakership would give Netanyahu’s opponents command of the parliamentary agenda, even if he remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in a new term, and the bloc could draw on Arab party MKs to assemble a majority. Names raised for the position include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, Elazar Stern, Meirav Ben-Ari, Eitan Ginzburg, Efrat Rayten, and attorney Oded Forer, with no consensus candidate yet announced.

Liberman estimated that as many as one-third of outgoing coalition MKs might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. The bloc also aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into October 7, modify conscription laws, limit prime ministerial tenure, and repeal specific judicial changes from the outgoing government. Liberman additionally seeks a bar on candidates facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. Party teams have begun coordinating on these issues, though obstacles remain regarding constitutional hurdles and the memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government’s collapse.

The legal framework supports Eisenkot’s minority scenario during the formation process. A constructive vote of no confidence against an incumbent government still requires 61 MKs to back an alternative, meaning the minority plan would not allow the bloc to remove a sitting Netanyahu government by simple majority. The strategy is strictly for forming a new administration, not for displacing the current one through a standard confidence vote.