Brazil Election: Datafolha Poll Erases Bolsonaro Lead

A new survey from the Datafolha institute shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, tied at 50 percent each. The results erase the four-point advantage Bolsonaro held in polls released two weeks prior. The data was published on Thursday, two days before the final runoff vote scheduled for Sunday.

The campaign timeline intensified following the first round of voting on October 4. Bolsonaro finished in first place with 47 percent of the vote, ahead of Lula who received 45 percent. The race narrowed in the following weeks as the candidates debated policy and personal history. The final public debate took place on Friday in Rio de Janeiro, broadcast on TV Globo. Observers noted the tone was more diplomatic than their first meeting on Sunday, though personal attacks persisted.

During the debate, Lula criticized Bolsonaro’s plan to reduce public spending, comparing it to the strategy of Argentine President Javier Milei. Bolsonaro accepted the comparison, stating he would have the same job in Brazil because Lula is leaving the country bankrupt. The exchange highlighted the central economic conflict in the campaign. Bolsonaro argued that high costs and debt are the result of the incumbent’s administration, while Lula questioned the senator’s experience with the Brazilian economy.

Personal disputes also surfaced during the discussion. Bolsonaro referred to Lula as Nine Fingers, a nickname referencing a metalworking accident that cost the president one finger. Lula, who is 80 years old, demanded an apology. Bolsonaro offered one after the initial exchange. The debate also touched on public safety. Bolsonaro called his rival a vigilante, citing allegations of ties to paramilitary groups in Rio de Janeiro. He said he would classify such groups as narcoterrorists if elected.

A third point of tension involved a five-year-old child killed in a shootout. The child’s mother attended the debate. The police officer involved in the incident was represented by Bolsonaro’s legal team. Bolsonaro stated he does not believe his client was guilty of the shooting. The exchange underscored the high stakes of the election for families affected by urban violence.

The Datafolha survey indicates the race is effectively a dead heat. The two candidates are expected to spend their final days campaigning on the streets of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The runoff vote will determine the next president of Brazil on Sunday.