Brazil Runoff: Final Poll Shows 1.3 Point Gap Ahead of Sunday Vote

Voters in Brazil face a Sunday decision that will determine whether the country maintains its current left-wing leadership or shifts further to the right. The final CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent of the vote, while incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva sits at 45 percent.

The margin of error for the survey is 2.2 percentage points, meaning the race is statistically tied. This result follows a previous poll from the same firm a week earlier, which showed Bolsonaro leading 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. In the first round of voting, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45 percent.

The candidates concluded their campaigns on Saturday with rallies in different regions. Lula, who is 80 years old, spoke to hundreds of supporters at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Wearing a red hat, he stood on a campaign truck and waved a national flag. He referenced his rival's relationship with US President Donald Trump, stating that people must choose between a leader who kisses the national flag or one who kisses the American flag.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned in the state of Minas Gerais. His supporters included hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. The rally emphasized themes of family values and reduced government reliance, contrasting with the incumbent's platform.

The stakes extend beyond the two men. A victory for Lula would grant him a fourth non-consecutive term. A win for Bolsonaro would align Brazil with a regional trend toward right-wing governance. Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The campaign has focused heavily on economic policy and crime. Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and cut government spending. Supporters argue that welfare programs have created dependency. Ebert Dorigo, a motorcyclist at the Minas Gerais rally, told AFP that the Workers' Party encouraged reliance on state aid and that achievement comes through hard work.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult. She told AFP that she is stuck choosing between the horrible and the lesser evil. The candidates held a final debate on Friday, where they traded accusations over the economy and their past records.