Analyst warns Gulf energy and internet cables face third Iran war wave after U.S. vote

More than 7,000 people have died in Iran, according to Western non-governmental organizations, as analysts forecast a new round of fighting between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Danny Citrinowicz, who spent two decades in Israeli military intelligence, told CBC News that a renewed war appears almost inevitable once ballots are counted in the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. He said the next phase of conflict will likely be more destructive than the first two.

Citrinowicz expects the third round of hostilities to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communication lines, including internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that Iran might use its land army to launch limited attacks on Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain that host U.S. bases. The goal, he said, is to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

The conflict has involved two major phases over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and ended after 12 days. Fighting resumed in February after a large U.S. military buildup, starting with Israeli attacks on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes on territory, but the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social on Thursday of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks are intended to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands. These demands include sanctions relief, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. She said these groups could target soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy remains possible but has been narrowed by U.S. maximalist aims.

The human toll extends beyond Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon, while 21 U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces voters in the coming days, has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime.