Israelis Head to Ballots in First Post-War Vote as Blocs Fall Short of 61-Seat Majority

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday for the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The vote determines the direction of a government managing long-running conflicts and deep domestic divisions. No single bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the governing coalition, which includes Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition field features Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance. Yair Lapid has joined the Together alliance, which is led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

A KAN survey conducted before Friday's publication ban showed the opposition alliance with 52 seats and Netanyahu's bloc with 50. The remaining seats would go to unaffiliated parties, including the Arab-majority lists Ra'am and the Joint List. Both major coalitions have ruled out partnering with these parties for now, raising the possibility of a minority government or a repeat election.

Voters are weighing security failures preceding the 2023 attacks and the ultra-Orthodox military exemption. Critics also cite Netanyahu's judicial reforms as a threat to Israel's liberal democratic order. Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group described the election as "the last chance to save Israeli democracy" for secular and liberal factions.

International pressure has mounted as allies sanction West Bank settlements and condemn operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu's September 24 address to the UN General Assembly. The prime minister faces corruption charges since 2019 and an ICC arrest warrant for war crimes. A loss could expose him further in his ongoing trial.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially winning those parties 15 seats. The Central Elections Committee recently reversed a ban on the Joint List and Ra'am after a Supreme Court ruling. However, the court disqualified Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh over an article describing the October 7 attacks as "an important historical event."