Knesset Race: Trump Team Prepares for Post-Netanyahu Shift

The latest Maariv survey shows a 54 to 48 seat gap favoring the opposition bloc over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the October 27 election. This margin of six seats represents a widening lead for the challengers as the campaign enters its final days. The data suggests a potential change in government leadership if the current trend holds through voting day.

US officials told Axios that advisers to President Donald Trump are preparing for a shift in Israeli leadership. They view the opposition as a viable partner for future collaboration. One senior adviser described the political dynamic by stating, "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows." This assessment reflects an internal willingness to pivot strategy if the incumbent loses power.

Disagreement exists within the administration regarding how to approach the campaign. Many of the president's closest advisers opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu. They believed the United States should remain neutral in the Israeli contest. Vice President JD Vance reflected this distance when speaking to reporters this week. He said, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters."

Strains in policy alignment have emerged between the White House and the Netanyahu government. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized recent military actions in Syria. He called strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability." His comments signal friction over the administration's current defense posture.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a closer working relationship with the prime minister. However, the State Department has voiced frustrations over specific policy areas. Officials believe Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government. They have also expressed disappointment with what they perceive as a lack of action by Netanyahu to curb settler attacks in the West Bank.

Public opinion in Israel reflects the shifting political balance. The Maariv poll found that 60% of respondents would prefer a unity government if the election fails to produce a clear majority. Only 23% favored holding another election, while 17% remained undecided. Among those supporting a coalition, 33% wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead the government. In a direct matchup, opposition leader Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 49% support against 41%.