640,000 first-time voters could decide 12 Knesset seats

Approximately 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 will be eligible to cast ballots in the general election scheduled for October 27. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, this demographic group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective vote has the potential to determine the outcome for as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that Israel maintains a high birth rate, which creates a large pool of young voters. Research suggests that if turnout remains high, this group will influence the final tally. Hoffman co-sponsored an event for young voters with the Yigal Allon Center, where politicians addressed more than 1,000 attendees, many of whom are in pre-military programs.

Surveys conducted in May by the Israel Democracy Institute indicate strong intent to participate. Between 80% and 95% of potential young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely vote. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of 18-to-22-year-olds were certain they would vote, with another 19% thinking they would.

These figures exceed youth turnout in the United States. The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported that youth participation in the 2024 US presidential election was 47%. In Israel, more than four-fifths of surveyed young respondents described the opportunity to vote as fairly or very meaningful.

National security and the cost of living are the top priorities for both Jewish and Arab young voters. Hoffman attributed this focus to the instability experienced during their adolescence, including the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the October 7 attacks. Many in this age group are currently serving in the Israel Defense Forces or will begin service soon.

A September 23 N12 poll found that 74% of young people identified their political views as right-wing or center-right. If the election had been held at that time, 16% of respondents would have voted for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, while 14% would have supported Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools often show a preference for Eisenkot’s party and Beyachad, a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem in an army preparation program in the Golan, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He cited the need for a strong and secure Israel. Tomer Shiloh, also in the Golan, intends to vote for the opposition Change bloc, specifically for Eisenkot or Bennett. Shiloh wants the next government to require Haredi men to serve in the IDF and to lower the cost of living.

Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the Democrats party due to economic concerns. He highlighted the financial burden on university students who must work to cover tuition and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, plans to vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime in Arab municipalities. He urged his friends to vote to ensure change in the country.