640,000 Young Israelis May Determine 12 Knesset Seats in Tuesday Vote

Israelis will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in an election where the voting choices of young citizens may determine the final composition of the legislature. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 individuals aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their participation could decide as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old resident of Ramat Hasharon, expressed her motivation for voting in an interview with the Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month. She stated that she is voting "so we can change the future of this country." Chernyvsky spoke at a Tel Aviv event where politicians addressed more than 1,000 first-time voters, many of whom are in pre-military programs. She is currently in an army preparation program in the Negev and attributes the country's current problems to the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although she has not finalized her choice, she expects to support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot. Both parties belong to the opposition "change bloc," which seeks to remove Netanyahu from power. He has served as prime minister since 2009, with a brief interruption between 2021 and 2022.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, said the institute co-sponsored the Tel Aviv event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman noted that Israel is a young nation with a high birth rate. She stated, "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference."

In May, the Israel Democracy Institute surveyed prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters. The data showed that 80% to 95% of respondents across population groups said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty. Eighty-seven percent of Arab respondents indicated an intention to vote. For comparison, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. A separate poll conducted for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, while another 19% thought they would.

Both surveys indicated that national security and the cost of living were the top concerns for Jewish and Arab young voters. Hoffman explained that this focus is not surprising, noting that these young people were in junior high during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and experienced the events of October 7. She said, "They are worried about their future."

Determining political leanings among this demographic presents challenges. Hoffman observed that Jewish Israeli voters of all ages have shifted rightward over the past two decades. However, she noted that military service can have the opposite effect, as it may raise questions about the war and its objectives. An N12 poll conducted on September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right. Twenty-three percent described their views as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% said they would vote for Eisenkot's Yashar party, and 14% said they would vote for Netanyahu's Likud party. Hoffman added that mock elections in high schools showed most students supporting Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support was recorded for Likud, while support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party was low.

Individual voters reflect this diverse range of preferences. Omer Gross, a resident of Jerusalem currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin. He disagrees with Smotrich's approach in Gaza but supports his policies in the West Bank. Gross said, "We need a strong, secure Israel." His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herzliya, will vote for the change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M to maintain IDF anonymity, said universal service is his top priority. He will vote for the Democrats primarily on economic grounds, citing the costs of tuition, books, food, and housing. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shef-Amra, wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps in Arab communities and tackle crime. He is urging friends to vote and stated, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."