Lula rallies on Copacabana before vote

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva mobilized tens of thousands of supporters on Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach on Saturday to launch a final push for victory in Sunday's presidential runoff. The gathering marked the last day of campaigning before approximately 159 million eligible Brazilians head to the polls. Lula and far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro are currently tied in public opinion polls.

The contest is statistically unusual. Since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has won the subsequent runoff. Bolsonaro defeated Lula in the first round on 4 October, capturing 47% of the vote against Lula's 45%. A win for Lula would therefore break a historical trend established over the past four decades.

Market observers and political analysts note that Bolsonaro is currently viewed as the slight favorite. The son of former President Jair Bolsonaro has positioned his campaign around strict enforcement against violent crime. However, Lula has recently gained momentum in the polls following a series of scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

On the beach, the atmosphere was festive under bright sun. Crowds dressed in red moved in a procession along the 2.5-mile shoreline. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner with the message "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Truck driver Josias Silva, 61, held a handmade sign reading "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva stated that recent student-led protests indicate citizens are engaged and predicted Lula would secure more than 60% of the vote, a margin much higher than current polling suggests.

For many voters, the election involves stakes beyond standard policy differences. Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic supporters fear that a win for Flávio Bolsonaro could lead to his father's release or a return to government. Press reports suggest that other individuals involved in the plot, who are currently jailed or in exile, may receive senior military and police positions if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.

Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, said her opposition targets "Bolsonarismo" specifically rather than the entire right wing. She stated that she lost four relatives due to Jair Bolsonaro's handling of the pandemic. Many participants in the rally are part of "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members created after the first round. Retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, described the election as "not a normal election."

Bolsonaro supporters held their own rallies. In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in the Praça da Liberdade. Many wore Brazil's yellow football jersey and waved both Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the country's second-largest electorate and serves as a key bellwether, as no presidential candidate has won without carrying the state. Bolsonaro led in the state by just under 5% in the first round.

Antonio Carlos Costa Jr., a 59-year-old shooting club owner in Belo Horizonte, defended Bolsonaro's security platform. He argued that Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to self-defense and that his son would maintain that stance. Security experts note that Jair Bolsonaro's loosening of gun laws diverted firearms to criminal gangs, whereas Lula has tightened regulations. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, held a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win," reflecting doubts among Lula's base about Bolsonaro's ability to curb crime given his ties to Rio's paramilitary militias.