Democrats Target Four Senate Seats as Republicans Hold Firm in Red States

The Cook Political Report currently rates five Senate races in states won by Donald Trump in 2024 as toss-ups. These competitive contests are located in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas. North Carolina, which Trump won by three points two years ago, is now assessed as a likely hold for the Democrats. Georgia, previously viewed as a prime target for the GOP, has shifted to a likely Democratic hold. South Carolina, a state Trump won by 18 points, remains a lean Republican contest.

Democrats require a net gain of four seats to secure control of the Senate. The party’s chances hinge on turnout in Republican-heavy states. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, described the field as energizing. "We have so many candidates running in so many deep red and purple places, and they are winning, and it is exciting," she said. "People want change, and we have so much talent on the field right now. I feel very inspired."

Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, countered that Democrats are pushing unaffordable agendas. She cited candidates in Michigan, Maine, and Alaska. "Senate Democrats' socialist surge has reached a fever pitch, and their desperate conspiracies to defraud voters appear criminal," Breslin said. She referenced a controversy in Alaska involving the recruitment of Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The New York Times first reported on the alleged involvement of members of the campaign for Democratic candidate Mary Peltola in that effort.

In North Carolina, former Governor Roy Cooper is widely expected to win the seat left open by the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis. President Trump acknowledged Cooper’s likely victory during a campaign stop in the state. "He's going to become your senator," Trump said. "And it's crazy." In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent John Husted. Trump has recently commented on Husted’s physique to boost the Republican’s profile. Democrats in Ohio are citing economic issues and gas prices as key factors.

The race in Texas involves State Rep. James Talarico challenging a field where Trump endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary runoff. More than $500 million has been spent on the Texas race since the primary, with Republicans contributing over $300 million. Talarico has led in almost every poll, though the margins fall within the error range. In Alaska, Peltola faces Sullivan, with the late recruiting scandal threatening her momentum. Trump won Alaska by 14 points in the previous cycle.

In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek is in a tight race with Rep. Ashley Hinson. Agricultural issues and the Iran war have impacted the state’s economy. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. The race is tight, but Collins appears to be holding her position. In Kansas, incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall is facing a challenge from pastor Adam Hamilton. The state leans heavily Republican, but the race has remained close.

In the remaining tiers, Republicans hold likely favorites in Mississippi and Nebraska. Dan Osborn, an independent, is running in Nebraska, complicating the map for Sen. John Ricketts. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock’s successor, Jon Ossoff, is the heavy favorite despite the state’s recent shift. In South Carolina, Republican candidate Darline Graham is facing ads from Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. In Minnesota and New Hampshire, Democrats hold slight advantages in races that Republicans have targeted since the start of the cycle.