Mid-tier starters outperform top drafts in 2026

Starters ranked 25th through 36th by average draft position generated $155.6 in fantasy value during the 2026 season. This total nearly matched the $158.94 earned by the top 12 pitchers. The result defied recent historical trends where elite arms dominated the value charts.

From 2021 through 2025, the top 24 starters by draft position combined for at least $259.1 in value, according to FanGraphs Player Rater data. In 2026, that figure dropped to $227. The gap between the top tier and the next tier narrowed drastically. The 13th through 24th ranked starters earned only $67.83. This middle group, often called the SP Dead Zone, finished behind the 25th through 36th group in every season from 2022 through 2026.

Several pitchers drove the surge in the mid-tier range. Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Chase Burns, Sonny Gray and Zack Wheeler produced high value in this bracket. Other pitchers in the range struggled or missed time. Spencer Strider, Emmett Sheehan and Nick Lodolo underperformed. Tyler Glasnow, Brandon Woodruff and Blake Snell did not pitch enough to justify their draft slots. The pool also included many unproven arms such as Nolan McLean, Eury Perez, Trey Yesavage and Bubba Chandler.

Misiorowski stood out as the season’s primary breakout star. The Brewers right-hander posted a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over 174.1 innings. He recorded 252 strikeouts. His 37.9% strikeout rate and 0.80 WHIP were the second best in Major League Baseball history, excluding the shortened 2020 season. The review identifies him as the best pitcher in the game and recommends drafting him first in 2027. Cam Schlittler of the Yankees earned a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts. He is the likely winner of the American League Cy Young Award.

Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox represented the largest disappointment among high picks. His season declined after his sixth start. The review notes that his early-round ranking was defensible given his potential upside. Paul Skenes of the Pirates also drew criticism. While his 3.82 ERA and 200 strikeouts were respectable, his performance deteriorated in the final four and a half months. He posted a 4.56 ERA in that stretch, and his strikeout rate fell to 22% in August and September.

The 2026 class differs from the current draft pool. Kade Anderson had a brief debut, and uncertain roles for Didier Fuentes and Grant Taylor should keep their prices low. Andrew Painter, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith are likely to go around the 200th pick. Jared Jones and Walbert Ureña offer the best combination of youth and track record among the remaining options.

Drew Rasmussen of the Rays and Jesús Luzardo of the Phillies are projected to rise in 2027. Rasmussen handled a career-high workload, while Luzardo’s 2025 metrics predicted his 2026 success. Zack Wheeler also improved after returning from thoracic outlet surgery, finishing with a 1.67 ERA over his last six starts. Skenes and Crochet lead the list of decliners for the next season, joined by Blake Snell, Kyle Bradish and George Kirby. Bradish’s season ended early due to a hernia, leaving him with a 4.12 ERA.